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Dec 7, 2012
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now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation rate, down 0.2 to 63.6%. how did we get to 7.7% unemployment? basically the number of unemployed persons dropped more than the number of employed and there were downward trends in both those categories. lots to chew on. back to you guys. >> hampton, thank you. we are kind of scratching our heads. let's get more reaction from our panel. mark zandi and jared bernstein are here with us. mark, what do you make of this number? we've set this up as numbers were not going to be things we watched closely because of sandy. >> i'd say two things
now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation...
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Dec 6, 2012
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as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this number is going to tell us nothing tomorrow? > know there's going to be a lot of discussion about it. i'll stick to my guns, it's a 125 to 150 economy growth some of that could be sandy. i don't donknow if you want to k about that chart. this looks at the net effect acceptable. if 30% say it's acceptable and 20% say -- these are what we asked people. how many is that? that's five of eight different solutions. >> people say, yes, we're okay dealing with the fiscal cliff, if you raise taxes on those who make more than $250,000 and then you cap deductions, and virtually everything else is off the table. >>
as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this...
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Dec 5, 2012
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you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000. >> that will add some jobs, that's not a fair comparison. >> so 200,000 minus 60 is 150 -- >> so you're right there. >> i don't think the economy has chang chang changed deappreciably over the last year. >> well, i think coming into friday's number, we're a little -- we don't think there's 80,000 worth of impact, might be closer to 40,000 or 50,000. whatever, there's been an impact and i agree with mark's point, 1 in about 150,000 job creation in the economy and i don't know that meaningfully changes. but i would say, if anything, the bias next year
you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000....
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Dec 13, 2012
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that's in the range. 400 we thought was sandy. and now going down below 350 i think some economists, you know what, maybe the job market is a little bit better than we expected. the real disconnect that's out there, andrew, is we've reduced capital spending but not hiring. >> right. >> usually those things work together when they cut cap-ex they also cut workers to go along with that. they seem to have cut cap-ex on maybe a temporary, i'm worried about the fiscal cliff basis, but kept their employees on board. that seems to be the case right now. and presents the possibility of making some progress. >> they come back with some more cap-ex then we've got a shot -- >> did we get rick to talk about the fed yesterday? time for a -- some wisdom from rick? >> i'm here. >> rick, so what did you make of that? do you understand what policy is now? before you tell me how much you disagree with it, i just want to know if you understand it. >> do you understand it? >> no, i don't. i don't. i wanted to see if we were simpatico on that story. >
that's in the range. 400 we thought was sandy. and now going down below 350 i think some economists, you know what, maybe the job market is a little bit better than we expected. the real disconnect that's out there, andrew, is we've reduced capital spending but not hiring. >> right. >> usually those things work together when they cut cap-ex they also cut workers to go along with that. they seem to have cut cap-ex on maybe a temporary, i'm worried about the fiscal cliff basis, but...
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Dec 17, 2012
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they haven't addressed the aid for sandy. it's now been six weeks after sandy and nothing has been done on that front. >> the gears move slowly, but the aide for andy will pass. it's just a question of when they get it done. and, of course, because that involves additional spending, that factors into the debt limit in the fiscal cliff negotiations, as well. >> john, do you know what is available to the president administratively, not legislatively in terms of gun regulation? >> first of all, all the issues related to enforcement of existing laws. >> what mayor bloomberg said is it was illegal weapons at that point that he was talking about. >> 77,000 for seven lives of something. would the gun lobby argue for astringent background checks for mental illness? >> probably. it depends on how it's framed and how it's enforced. but, you know, they've taken a pretty doctrine-aire view towards opposing anything under the nose under the camel's tent. feinstein is now going to reintroduce that bill. she passed it in the clinton adminis
they haven't addressed the aid for sandy. it's now been six weeks after sandy and nothing has been done on that front. >> the gears move slowly, but the aide for andy will pass. it's just a question of when they get it done. and, of course, because that involves additional spending, that factors into the debt limit in the fiscal cliff negotiations, as well. >> john, do you know what is available to the president administratively, not legislatively in terms of gun regulation?...
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Dec 4, 2012
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of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private sector. that's a big jobs -- it might be hurricane related, but it could also be cliff related. there's these two things just backing up what joe said, folks, we've got enough to worry about without the stuff that we could probably fix and move on, there's enough going on. you can see that we're going to be substantially below the six-month average that we've been running there. and that shows that, you know, we were not robust to begin with, and this is why guys at the fed are concerned about things like this. if you're going 3% or 4% gdp, you have
of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private...
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Dec 19, 2012
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we will look for guidance. >> sandy had an impact by 11 cents a share and reduced shipment volumes and incremental operating costs. >> the new guidance quarter is below the high end. it backs fiscal earnings per share 6620 to 660! that's in between. what's the stock doing right now, can we tell? not much. >> they said operating income for the quarter improved in fedex freight and ground because of increased volumes and higher yields. persistent weakness in the global economy and increased demand for yielding limited the profits at fedex express. a couple deficit situations adding up. superstorm sandy, i didn't realize they would have that kind of impact on the company. 11 cents a share because of that. >> for the next quarter a little below. for the year, it looks pretty good. i don't imagine people would be saying, wow, the company is negative about the fiscal cliff. >> oracle's numbers yesterday were pretty -- >> right. excellent. we'll keep an eye on it at this point. we will talk to an analyst. >> we will talk to bart in a couple minutes. >> we'll have an mcco in. >>> in the headli
we will look for guidance. >> sandy had an impact by 11 cents a share and reduced shipment volumes and incremental operating costs. >> the new guidance quarter is below the high end. it backs fiscal earnings per share 6620 to 660! that's in between. what's the stock doing right now, can we tell? not much. >> they said operating income for the quarter improved in fedex freight and ground because of increased volumes and higher yields. persistent weakness in the global economy...
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Dec 3, 2012
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some of that is attribute knowledge to superstorm sandy. an estimated quarter million vex were destroyed. those numbers will be out this morning. it would only say that it is speaking to, quote, interested parties. but delta air lines is involved in those sdgzs. virgin is the second largest airline at heath row. >>> and lenny dykstra will be sentenced today. he was found to have hidden and stole sports memorabilia other items that were supposed to be part of a bankruptcy filing. >>> the game of political chicken, we were looking to rise above the partisan politics and trying to get something done. david walker, ceo of the america comeback initiative, steve mcmahon, co-founder of purple strategies, you guys have been on for a while and we've talked about a lot of things. steve, just 1:30 ag ago, you made a point talking about the bush tax cuts. and i said the tax cuts have been near and dear and you said at least bush was smart enough to know that we couldn't afford them so they were sunseted. >> so they were sunseted. >> that may happen. in
some of that is attribute knowledge to superstorm sandy. an estimated quarter million vex were destroyed. those numbers will be out this morning. it would only say that it is speaking to, quote, interested parties. but delta air lines is involved in those sdgzs. virgin is the second largest airline at heath row. >>> and lenny dykstra will be sentenced today. he was found to have hidden and stole sports memorabilia other items that were supposed to be part of a bankruptcy filing....
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Dec 26, 2012
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among the reasons cited for the weaker numbers, superstorm sandy and consumer nervousness about tax hikes due to the fiscal cliff. we've had lots of conversation about whether not fiscal cliff would impact consumer sentiment. and apparently now it's actually hitting people in the wallet. let's talk about what's on the economic agenda today. one very important report to watch, standard and poor's releasing the case schiller index on october home sales at 9:00 eastern. it's a busy week for housing data. tomorrow we're going to be getting the commerce department which releases new home sales for november. then on friday, the national association of realtors, not realtors -- >> yeah. >> releases its spending. its pending home sales index for november. >> in other housing news, the obama administration is considering expanding its mortgage refinancing program to include borrowers whose mortgages are not backed by the government and who owe more than their homes are worth. "the journal" reports one proposal being considered would also transfer potentially riskier loans that are held by private
among the reasons cited for the weaker numbers, superstorm sandy and consumer nervousness about tax hikes due to the fiscal cliff. we've had lots of conversation about whether not fiscal cliff would impact consumer sentiment. and apparently now it's actually hitting people in the wallet. let's talk about what's on the economic agenda today. one very important report to watch, standard and poor's releasing the case schiller index on october home sales at 9:00 eastern. it's a busy week for...
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Dec 18, 2012
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i am saying that the military-type weapons, the type of weapon that was used in sandy hook, last friday, in my view, should be banned. that is not a -- i don't believe that that abridges someone's second amendment rights. the high capacity magazines do not abridge people's constitutional rights. and i think you're seeing more and more people on all sides of this issue come to the table and say, let's reason together, and look at how we avoid the situation in the future. >> congresswoman we're going to have to leave it there. this is a conversation that, of course, is going to continue. we thank you for joining us this morning. >> up next, former omb director david stockman ready to rise above and tell us why he thinks the fed is at the heart of the problem when it comes to solving our nation's budget woes. "squawk box" will be right back. time to market reduced... those are good things. upstairs, they will see fantasy. not fantasy... logistics. ups came in, analyzed our supply chain, inventory systems... ups? ups. not fantasy? who would have thought? i did. we did, bob. we did. got it.
i am saying that the military-type weapons, the type of weapon that was used in sandy hook, last friday, in my view, should be banned. that is not a -- i don't believe that that abridges someone's second amendment rights. the high capacity magazines do not abridge people's constitutional rights. and i think you're seeing more and more people on all sides of this issue come to the table and say, let's reason together, and look at how we avoid the situation in the future. >> congresswoman...
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Dec 11, 2012
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i don't know -- >> sandy didn't do it. >> i don't know how to make it any better. all right, time heals all wounds. hopefully next time we'll hear some better news from you. >> i hope so, too. thanks, joe, thanks andrew. >> maybe we'll get some better news right now. steve liesman joins us with the results there cnbc's latest fed survey. steve? can you make it any better? >> i don't know about that. what we have, andrew, is overwhelming support from our -- or expectation from our respondents, 48 respondents, economists, wall street strategists, and analysts, that the fed will replace twist with outright asset purchases. disagreement on how they'll do it and increasing concern about all these purchases and the effect on the market. let's start off with the disagreement about how they're going to do it. we asked people, will the fed purchase only treasuries when it replaces operation twist? or will it purchase treasuries and mortgages? you can see that they're about split on this. unclear what chairman bernanke is going to announce tomorrow. now, how about how much q
i don't know -- >> sandy didn't do it. >> i don't know how to make it any better. all right, time heals all wounds. hopefully next time we'll hear some better news from you. >> i hope so, too. thanks, joe, thanks andrew. >> maybe we'll get some better news right now. steve liesman joins us with the results there cnbc's latest fed survey. steve? can you make it any better? >> i don't know about that. what we have, andrew, is overwhelming support from our -- or...
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Dec 27, 2012
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all of a sudden then, we had the impacts of sandy, a tragedy up in newtown, connecticut, and just a lot of other factors that just put a damper on the season. >> so, it is fair to say that it started better than it ended now. >> it started better than it ended. there was a lot of excitement around black friday. i mean it was almost like the super bowl. they have all this advertising, drag people out, it's the biggest event of the year come shopping, and then week after that we had the pro bowl. there was no excitement. there was no reason to come out shopping. so big bang, but it kind of waned as we went into the season. >> how much of the season is in the books now? i mean, what's still left to happen? >> there's a couple of big days still coming. i think this weekend is a big weekend as people redeem gift cards, go into the stores, exchange items for what they're looking for. hopefully get that add-on sale and people start to take advantage of the clearance sale, i would say, though, 95% of it is in the books. we've probably got some strong days ahead of us, though, that could move it
all of a sudden then, we had the impacts of sandy, a tragedy up in newtown, connecticut, and just a lot of other factors that just put a damper on the season. >> so, it is fair to say that it started better than it ended now. >> it started better than it ended. there was a lot of excitement around black friday. i mean it was almost like the super bowl. they have all this advertising, drag people out, it's the biggest event of the year come shopping, and then week after that we had...
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Dec 24, 2012
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you think you had the long calendar, the hurricane sandy, the track dpi in connecticut, people had a lot on their minds this season. this weekend was a key weekend. i think it helped. i didn't see promotions being extra promotional. but it's a push till the end. >> okay, so winners and losers? >> i think some of the winners, i think you're going to see companies like tjx, macy's. i think american eagle outfitters, even gap had a very good season, along with michael kors. >> losers? >> i think you had a tough time at jcpenney. i think the traffic was tough there all the time. i think kohl's had to be extra promotional in order to be able to drive the sales. and the whole children's sector was very promotional. from gymboree to children's place. >> so, dana, jason trennert from strat eegous. how are you doing? >> good, how are you, jason? >> good. normally retail stocks outperform in january, because i think that phenomenon that andrew was talking about is that there's a general sense that christmas gifts canceled at a certain point and then it comes back at the end and then you wind u
you think you had the long calendar, the hurricane sandy, the track dpi in connecticut, people had a lot on their minds this season. this weekend was a key weekend. i think it helped. i didn't see promotions being extra promotional. but it's a push till the end. >> okay, so winners and losers? >> i think some of the winners, i think you're going to see companies like tjx, macy's. i think american eagle outfitters, even gap had a very good season, along with michael kors. >>...
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Dec 10, 2012
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some of that is sandy. you can't disentangle it. i'm sure it would have been better if it weren't for the uncertainty. we saw how bad it was in the summer of '11 and it will be the same now. >> i very much agree with ian on this point, that the uncertainty is associated with the fiscal cliff is at least a percentage point on the fourth quarter. and could be more than that. it's just a lurking weight on the business sector. and if we are going to get this growth, i think we've got to have a little bit more certainty on taxes, on regulation, and the trajectory of fiscal policy going forward. >> what i hear you both saying, though, and you're talking about spending issue, and not worrying so much about that, but i also hear you saying it would be a big mistake to raise taxes. >> absolutely. yeah. >> but the top 2%, is that the least deleterious people to raise it on? >> yeah, it would be. but right now i'd prefer not to raise taxes on anybody. but if you're going to do it, then the people at the lowest propensity to consume -- >> you d
some of that is sandy. you can't disentangle it. i'm sure it would have been better if it weren't for the uncertainty. we saw how bad it was in the summer of '11 and it will be the same now. >> i very much agree with ian on this point, that the uncertainty is associated with the fiscal cliff is at least a percentage point on the fourth quarter. and could be more than that. it's just a lurking weight on the business sector. and if we are going to get this growth, i think we've got to have...
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Dec 14, 2012
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and the labor department also saying that superstorm sandy -- >> impact of that. >> on data collection for the month of november. >> interesting. >> one thing we have seen in the wake of the hurricane is a rise in prices. but apparently not happening this time around. . >> mr. liesman, thank you. mr. santelli, thank you. >> thank you. >> all right. our next guest is a member of the fix the debt campaign and while he's trying to get washington to avoid the fiscal cliff, he's also running aerospace giant boeing and joining us now from chicago is jim mcnerney, boeing chairman and ceo. mr. mcnerney. great to see you. earlier we said we do want you to fix the fiscal cliff, obviously, if you have time. but we also want you to make great airplanes and make sure you've got those totally perfect before you really start. you know, we can't put everything on you at this point. >> are you asking about the 787, joe? >> no. just in general, we want the safest planes, but you know what? i do have to ask you about that eventually with the generator and the qatar stuff. but just in general we don't exp
and the labor department also saying that superstorm sandy -- >> impact of that. >> on data collection for the month of november. >> interesting. >> one thing we have seen in the wake of the hurricane is a rise in prices. but apparently not happening this time around. . >> mr. liesman, thank you. mr. santelli, thank you. >> thank you. >> all right. our next guest is a member of the fix the debt campaign and while he's trying to get washington to avoid...